Course Code

ModelFore4Gov

Duration

14 hours (usually 2 days including breaks)

Overview

The objective of the course is to enable participants to gain a mastery of the basics of modelling and forecasting for government.

Course Outline

Modelling in government
Hypothesis testing
- Why test a hypothesis?
- Type I and type II errors
Estimating the tax gap
Case studies using econometric & regression models in government
Forecasting and time series models in government
- Shocks, trends and seasonality
- Forecasting tax receipts using regression and econometric modelling
- Sensitivity analysis and validation
Prediction validation techniques.
Hold out samples
Prediction intervals
Comparative analysis of forecasts
- Forecast Performance Measures

Testimonials

★★★★★

The material covered was interesting and the trainer was knowledgeable.

Neghat Khan

Good rapport with the audience, good & accessible explanation/presentation and he relates 'tech' stuff to real life examples which makes things easier to understand.

Ray Rusike

I was benefit from the excellent knowledge of the trainer, useful examples.

Jonathan Harrison

The topics were relevant to my role and I will be able to use this immediately in my work and in the future.

Rani Nandra

A very coherent and systematic refresher on forecasting models and useful applications.

Marco D'Alterio

I enjoyed the stats refresher and using software for exercises.

Rabeeah Shah

I learned about a lot of techniques I didn't know about before.

Alexandra Torok